行业资讯

经济学家点评美联储耶伦听证会

日期:2014-07-16
    相关人员认为,措词较以往略有变化,称如果劳动力市场向好趋势继续,美联储或早于预期加息。另相关人士认为,对美股估值的表述更像是补充说明,而非警告。相关人士认为,对劳动力市场的判断,高度影响其货产品政策决定。
  相关领导人士重申将继续维持高度宽松的货产品政策,以达到美联储政策目标。但她在措词上较以往略有变化,她表示如果劳动力市场向好趋势继续,美联储可能早于预期加息。从她的的说法上看,美联储有可能提前加息。
  整体看,相关领导人士的证词偏鸽派,因为她的首要任务是解释即使失业率持续下跌,美联储为何要将联邦基金利率维持在近0位置。尽管美国一季度GDP下跌很可能是暂时的,指出仍需密切关注经济反弹情况,房地产市场依然疲软。关于首次加息时点问题,相关领导人士讨论了早于预期加息和推迟加息两个方面,称这取决于劳动力市场表现。证词部分并没有太多新意。
  目前市场预期美联储于明年年中加息,我们不认为近期美联储会改变利率政策的立场。相关领导人士对美股估值的表述更像是正文后的备注、补充说明,而非警告,与美联储书面报告不同。
  她是绝对的鸽派,她更加担心劳动力市场的状况,包括长期失业情况、工资增幅疲软等。她认为劳动力市场依然疲软,这促使她维持高度宽松的货产品政策。
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