行业资讯

加拿大丰业银行:真金不怕火炼 避险光芒必重现

日期:2018-07-13
加拿大丰业银行(Scotiabank)周四(7月12日)撰文称,黄金最近的弱势源于持仓成本上升、强势美元以及实体需求低迷。
 
  机会成本
 
  考虑到美国贸易政策引起的不确定性,商品和股市下跌,而黄金却未能获益。
 
  投资者更偏好美国和德国国债,尤其是前者的收益率在5月曾高于3%。
 
  美元在6月21日升至95.54,而2月16日为88.25。
 
  尽管如此,由于收益率在回落,美元的反弹开始失去动能。
 
  实体与投资需求
 
  根据世界黄金协会,黄金第一季需求为973.5吨,为2008年以来最低水平。
 
  印度市场还在消化税收变化等政策,而卢比贬值进一步打压了黄金消费。
 
  黄金上市交易基金持仓也跌至2102吨,为去年9月以来最低。
 
  总结
 
  虽然黄金面临多个不利印度,但是从周图上看,黄金依然位于去年一系列低点上方。
 
  此外黄金的下跌也和工业金属以及股市类似,道指从年内高点回撤10%,黄金回撤9.4%,LME指数回撤11.7%。
 
  有鉴于此,黄金没有进入新的熊市,只是在区间中的整理。
 
  考虑到美债有被抛售的可能,黄金应该会再现避险光芒。
加拿大丰业银行:真金不怕火炼 避险光芒必重现(图1)

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