行业资讯

加息在即金价遭遇重挫 但或是绝佳入场时机

日期:2018-03-21
        随着美联储开始为期两天的货币政策会议,金价跌至三周低点;然而,有机构表示,尽管面临利率上升的威胁,但其仍然看到金价上升的动力。  
 
  尽管金价曾一度测试1300美元/盎司上方的支撑位,但黄金交易商Degussa的分析师们表示,对于寻求某种市场保险的投资者而言,当前的价格可能是一个具有吸引力的入场点位。
 
  随着美联储决议临近,近期金价出现走低。不过包括道明证券(TD Securities)、盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)在内的机构纷纷表示,美联储加息之后金价有望上涨。
 
  Degussa指出,市场上还有其他因素在帮助黄金对抗利率上升的威胁。Degussa分析师们解释称,特别是人们越来越担心,由于利率上升,美国经济可能陷入衰退。
 
  Degussa表示,全球通胀压力使黄金成为具有吸引力的避险资产。
 
  该机构分析师表示:“从长期来看,黄金价格应会补偿其所有者在法定货币购买力方面的损失。”
                                 加息在即金价遭遇重挫 但或是绝佳入场时机(图1)
        Degussa的言论是在美联储周三普遍预期的加息之前。尽管市场认为本周加息几乎板上钉钉,但围绕今年晚些时候的未来加息轨迹仍存在相当大的不确定性。
  市场正开始对美联储暗示在今年加息四次的可能性进行定价。根据联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)去年12月的“点阵图”,预测中值是今年会有三次加息。
 
  一些华尔街投行预计,在本周美联储会议上,2018年加息次数预测中值将升至4次。
 
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