行业资讯

特朗普的贸易言论加速了对美元霸权地位的修正

日期:2018-03-08
特朗普加速他的保护主义议程,与他高度扩张的财政政策以及今年稍早财政部长努钦对看好弱势美元的言论相协调。

尽管当前的财政和货币政策组合将令美元保持负面,但进一步来看,美元的霸权地位在一段时间内一直被修正,而特朗普的贸易言论正在加速这一进程。

外汇储备的流动需要时间来改变,但在美国必须发行更多债券来为双赤字融资的时候,美国资产的吸引力下降可能是至关重要的。我们认为,收益率相关的上行压力将无助于抵消当前美国政策对美元的负面影响。
特朗普的贸易言论加速了对美元霸权地位的修正(图1)
我们的基本假设中,特朗普政府逐步引入保护主义措施,我们相信美元近期的疲软趋势将有所减弱,欧元/美元应保持在1.21-1.26的区间内。

而更为冒险的情形是,当真正的贸易战爆发,如美国离开WTO,全球风险情绪可能受到重创,而美元的传统避险地位是否仍将继续存在,并支撑美元,这一点愈发不清晰。

我们认为,在这种情况下,与美国经济增长相关的打击将占据主导,并预计美元将在这一结果中走弱。

北京时间3月8日08:32,美元指数报89.59。

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