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通胀明年底有望达标 但重申2018年适合加息两次

日期:2018-02-22
美国费城联储主席哈克(Patrick Harker)周三(2月21日)发表讲话称,尽管认为随着劳动力市场继续为美国经济增加就业,且通货膨胀将升向2%的目标,但他重申2018年适合加息两次。

根据去年12月的“点阵图”,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的利率预测中值是2018年加息三次,这意味着哈克落在鸽派的一端。不过,他今年并没有政策的投票权。

哈克周三在圣路易斯圣路易斯大学演讲时称,“预计到2019年中期美国失业率将降至3.6%附近,同时到2019年底通胀将达到或超过美联储2%的目标。”此外,他还预计2018年美国GDP将增长2.5%,但2019年增速将下降至2%,之后还将降低。
通胀明年底有望达标 但重申2018年适合加息两次(图1)
哈克的上述观点与其同僚不谋而合,周三达拉斯联储主席卡普兰(Robert Kaplan)也预计,今年整体失业率将从4.1%下滑,到年底下跌至3.6%左右。而经济增长到2020年将放缓至1.75%-2%,潜在增速为1.75%。

此外,哈克还提到,美联储长期货币政策的变化不需要立法上的改变,但赞成就修改美联储政策制定框架的利弊进行认真的辩论,其中一些建议包括提高美联储2%的通胀目标。

他对此表示,美联储不仅要与国会沟通,还要与市场和学界沟通,对潜在变化的利弊进行认真辩论。

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