行业资讯

道明证券:美元/加元本周最新交易策略

日期:2018-01-24
周三(1月24日)亚市早盘,美元/加元位于1.2415附近水平徘徊。

日内道明证券(TDS)外汇策略研究团队撰文讨论了美元/加元走势前景,认为加元表现仍将滞后于其他G10货币,对加元维持看空偏好。

该行观点主要内容如下:对于美元/加元而言,北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)的新一轮谈判在本周开始,政策制定者们决定延长几天的时间来试图敲定一项协议。

本次谈判中气氛紧张,导致存在不确定高企的空间。事实上,特朗普援引NAFTA协定的第2205条(NAFTA"s Article 2205)作为谈判策略的风险是很高的,且我们认为,市场对这样的结果没有适当的对冲。
道明证券:美元/加元本周最新交易策略(图1)
NAFTA协定的第2205条(NAFTA"s Article 2205)清楚写明:任何一方只要递交了书面告知,便可在6个月之后,退出NAFTA协定。更关键的是,特朗普此举无需国会授权。

而除了北美自由贸易协定,本周还需关注一些经济数据,喜忧参半的数据也可能成为加元的“痛点”,其中包括加拿大11月零售销售及12月CPI数据。

根据本行的高频公允价值模型(HFFV),加元在主要货币中仍极易走软。考虑到北美自由贸易协定的影响,目前更倾向于对加元保持看空偏好。

维持近期美元/加元在1.2360低点附近逢低买入的策略。

北京时间08:45,美元/加元报1.2415/18。

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