行业资讯

巴克莱:美元短期走势前瞻分析

日期:2018-01-23
周二(1月23日)亚市盘初,欧元/美元维持涨幅震荡,目前交投在1.2260附近。

针对欧洲央行本周四利率决议前的欧元/美元前景走势,法国巴黎银行(BNPP)研究团队撰文分析如下:

欧洲央行将在1月25日周四召开2018年首次货币政策会议。自12月会议纪要公布以来,市场对欧洲央行收紧政策的定价出现大幅调整。
巴克莱:美元短期走势前瞻分析(图1)
市场目前预计欧洲央行在2019年3月升息20个基点的几率为65%。这意味着市场目前预计欧洲央行将在2018年9月可能会结束QE。

我们认为,目前预计欧洲央行在本周会议上改变前瞻指引可能有些过早,我们的经济学家团队仍预计该央行可能在2018年3月会议上改变措辞,以此与更新的经济预期保持一致。

因此,欧元多头可能将1月会议结果解读为略偏鸽派,这将导致欧元/美元温和回撤至1.21水平。

北京时间1月23日08:52,欧元/美元报1.2259/63。

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