行业资讯

法兴银行:日元大幅升值即将来临?

日期:2018-01-15
法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)经济学家Kit Juckes撰文就日元未来走势进行前瞻分析,具体内容如下:

Kit Juckes解释称,去年6月至7月德国国债收益率大幅上升推高欧元/日元,随后债市抛售被证明是短暂的,但欧元的反弹仍在继续,我们目前再次面临这个问题。

同样的事情是否会发生在日元身上?

在德拉基去年6月葡萄牙央行会议进行干预后,欧元/美元及10年期实际债券收益率差的关联减弱。

德国国债收益率和欧元汇率原本同步上涨,但当欧洲央行发言人试图淡化德拉基的言论时,收益率却出现了逆转,欧元却并未走“回头路”。那么情况是否会重复呢?
法兴银行:日元大幅升值即将来临?(图1)
我发现观察这些情境下的利率/外汇关联时,不禁想到这可能是美元/日元的走势蓝图,它可能会与收益率差异产生分歧。

如果日元不断上涨,日本央行是否会出手试图冷静市场?我肯定他们将会这样做。

我猜测,预计日元大幅走强有些为时过早,但货币能进一步展望未来,并对政策变化进行定价。但债市受央行干预却不能。

北京时间1月15日09:59,美元/日元报110.75/78。

远东贵金属首发最精准的黄金行情分析,<黄金交易投资开户>www.fe062.com,转载请注明出处.投资严格止损,行情仅供参考!

Trading leveraged financial instruments such as foreign exchange, commodities, indices, and other products is risky. You may lose part or all of your initial investment. This may not be suitable for many investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks and consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and preferences. You should carefully manage your risks and seek independent advice if necessary. It is important that you carefully read our Client Agreement and Privacy Policy before deciding to use any of our products.

Disclaimer:

The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States, Germany, the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong SAR of PRC and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

Company name:Far East Precious Metal (HK) Limited
Registration number:1409390
注冊和營業地址: 10/F Woon Lee Commercial Building, 9 Austin Avenue, Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon, Hong Kong