行业资讯

荷兰合作银行:欧元/美元出现买入良机?

日期:2018-01-10
周三(1月10日)亚市早盘,欧元/美元试图从近几日的大跌中反弹,目前交投在1.1945附近,上日该汇价受政治忧虑打压下滑,加上交易商对近期涨势获利了结,该汇价一度跌至1.1914附近。

那么该汇价买入机会是否出现?对此,荷兰合作银行高级外汇策略师Jane Foley解释称,上周五的美国就业数据并未显著改变美联储的升息预期,美元获得一定支撑,欧元/美元未能触及1.2090高位。

目前市场注意力可能转向周五的美国CPI和零售销售数据。尽管美国通胀前景对美联储政策预期至关重要,但美元的前景也受到其它因素的影响,包括技术方面和政治新闻等。

  

上周五美国就业人数录得14.8万,尽管总体就业数据低于预期,但这并没有改变美国劳动力市场收紧的事实。

荷兰合作银行:欧元/美元出现买入良机?(图1)

即便如此,低于预期的非农数据最初也提振欧元/美元走高。但是该汇价未能突破技术阻力暗示投资者对欧元的偏好减弱,这也导致欧元/美元周二不断逼近1.19关口。这种回撤是否会继续或者欧元多头是否会转变观念仍有待观察。

  

尽管我们对欧元依旧维持建设性看法,但太多利好消息可能已经被定价。因此,我们预期欧元/美元未来3个月料守在1.20水平附近,年终可能会逐步小幅走高。

  

因美联储并不是唯一一个处于升息周期中的央行,政策收紧对美元的影响已经被稀释,我们预期欧元/美元年底目标指向1.24附近。

  

北京时间1月10日10:14,欧元/美元报1.1943/44。
 

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