行业资讯

疲软非农无碍美联储加息 美元之后可能反弹

日期:2018-01-08
尽管上周五(1月5日)公布的美国12月非农报告弱于预期,但并未让美联储(FED)脱离今年多次升息的轨道,这提振美元指数当天小幅反弹。盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)认为,美元可能在就业数据之后出现“令人惊讶的弹性”。

  

上周五公布的数据显示,美国12月非农就业人口增加14.8万人,远低于市场预期的增加19万,且失业率持稳于4.1%;最受瞩目的薪资增速不负众望:美国12月平均每小时工资月率增长0.3%,预期增长0.3%,前值修正为增长0.1%;美国12月平均每小时工资年率上涨2.5%,预期增长2.5%,前值修正为上升2.4%。

  

尽管不及预期的数据发布后美元一度下滑,但之后重获动能。根据CME的Fedwatch,联邦基金利率期货消化的3月升息可能性超过60%。

  疲软非农无碍美联储加息 美元之后可能反弹(图1)

周一(1月8日)亚洲时段,美元指数徘徊在92关口下方,欧元/美元交投在1.2037,而美元/日元则交投在113.16。

  

盛宝银行外汇策略主管John Hardy表示,由于疲软的非农数据不会打乱美联储的政策路径,美元可能在就业数据之后反弹。

  

他还指出,“1.2000将会成为欧元/美元的焦点,如果该货币对收在1.2050上方的近期高点附近,会让多头暂时保持乐观。”

  

另外,该行还认为,美元/日元目前在113.21附近,若继续收113.00上方将会短线看涨,而如果收盘接近日内低点将使前景转为区间波动甚至潜在看跌。”

  

北京时间07:37,美元指数报91.97/91.99。
 

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