行业资讯

丹斯克:欧元/美元2018年前瞻分析

日期:2017-12-27
周二(12月27日)亚市早盘,欧元/美元维持区间震荡格局,隔夜小幅下挫。

针对该汇价2018年的走势,丹斯克银行(Danske Bank)近期撰文前瞻分析如下:

我们维持欧元/美元的预期不变,但风险是不对称的。

值得注意的是,自从我们上次的预测更新以来,欧洲央行似乎已经改变了它在两个层面上的态度:1)在我们看来,欧洲央行正处于对欧元区经济采取更“全面”方法的过程中,欧元区强劲的经济活动和“超核心通胀”的持续回升将为欧洲央行在2018年中期西区下一步“正常化”措施铺平道路;2)欧洲央行似乎在考虑将量化宽松的决定从通胀前景中“解脱”。

丹斯克:欧元/美元2018年前瞻分析(图1)

以上进一步巩固了这一观点,即便通胀前景依然低迷,但德拉基和同僚们应准备在明年年底前停止增加量化宽松的规模,这将使外汇市场对“退出”的定价变得越来越困难。

最后,中期来看,该汇价的持续修正低估将会延续。

因此,我们预计认为欧元/美元1个月和3个月目标指向1.16,6个月目标指向1.20,12个月目标指向1.25水平。我们认为该汇价风险主要偏向上行。

北京时间12月27日08:41,欧元/美元报1.1860/61。


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