行业资讯

丹斯克银行:美元/日元最新走势前瞻

日期:2017-12-21
周四(12月21日)亚市早盘,美元/日元位于113.25附近水平徘徊。上一交易日汇价自开盘一路攀升上扬,纽约时段尾盘触及113.46高点,并以连续第2个交易日以较长阳线收涨。本交易日汇价自高位展开回撤,目前暂呈跌势。

日内丹斯克银行(Danske Bank)高级分析师Kristoffer Kj?r Lomholt撰文对美元/日元走势作出简要分析和预测。主要内容如下:

受美国收益率曲线趋陡的影响,美元/日元受助稳步走高,并突破113大关。

丹斯克银行:美元/日元最新走势前瞻(图1)

与此同时,随着本周中股市遭遇抛售,美元/日元走势凸显出美国固定收益市场仍是日元汇率波动最重要的驱动力。且美国税收改革可能会继续支撑美元/日元,并可能令美元/日元短期内再度扩大升势。

此外,本行认为,美元/日元基于日本央行(BOJ)会议相关的风险可能偏于上行。如果本交易日日本央行行长黑田东彦(Kuroda)在新闻发布会上设法淡化其近几个月提及逆转利率所引发的紧缩猜测,则美元/日元将大幅飙涨。

然而,本行仍认为,美元/日元短期内仍将维持在111.65-114.50主要区间内交投,而1-3个月目标看向113,6-12个月目标指向114水平。

北京时间08:00,美元/日元报113.24/26。


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