行业资讯

购买黄金的时机已经成熟

日期:2017-11-23

标普500指数已经较2009年低点上涨近四倍,当前牛市持续时间在过去140年中位居第二(最上方绿色条)。然而,投资者要记住的是,没有一个牛市可以永续长存。

当前的美国房地产市场不会允许投资者逢低买入,囤积债券真正的帮助也不大,因其收益率极低,即便美联储加息。

黄金则因其与美股的负相关性成为有利的选择。黄金与美股往往呈反向波动,不想在下一轮熊市或经济衰退中沦为牺牲品的投资者便可以考虑购买黄金。

与此同时,接近极端低点的黄金/标普500比率暗示,较之美股,黄金被低估。

目前黄金价格较2011年高点低约三分之一,白银价格较其高点低约三分之二。换句话说,贵金属当前颇具吸引力。
购买黄金的时机已经成熟(图1)

技术面看,当前黄金走势基本呈现震荡上行格局,分析师Stewart Thomson预计这种趋势会继续增强,尽管速度非常慢。
  

与黄金走势存在一定负相关关系的美元兑日元可能正在酝酿一个更大周期的头肩顶右肩,若果真如此,对金价而言将是利好。
  

综上,鉴于黄金与美股的负相关性,为了降低潜在的美股从峰值回落风险给财富造成的损失,投资者是时候考虑购买金币金条之类的实物黄金了

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