行业资讯

税改预期趋于谨慎催生避险配置 金价升至近三周高位

日期:2017-11-09

周三(11月8日)金价上涨,徘徊于近三周高位,因期待已久的美国税改计划可能遭延后的预期压制美元。现货黄金涨0.47%,报1,281.30美元/盎司。

据外媒报道,美国众议院在审议税改议案时,正在讨论逐步降低企业税的可能性。这使得市场担心税改对美国经济的提振力度将大打折扣。受此影响,美元走势趋弱,而金价则受到提振。

不过,美国众议院议长瑞安此后表示,众议院税改议案将立即下调企业税,但逐步下调税率仍然对企业有利。此话颇为耐人寻味,虽然排除了逐步下调企业税的传言,但是也没有对此持反对意见。因此,市场仍不敢对税改中的一些分歧掉以轻心。

不过,美国众议院议长瑞安此后表示,众议院税改议案将立即下调企业税,但逐步下调税率仍然对企业有利。此话颇为耐人寻味,虽然排除了逐步下调企业税的传言,但是也没有对此持反对意见。因此,市场仍不敢对税改中的一些分歧掉以轻心。

而据知名政治新闻网站Politico报道,美国参议院版税改议案将于当地时间周四11:30公布。这一消息基本打消了参议院延迟发布税改议案的出传言。但是,参议院是否会对逐步下调企业税进行实质讨论,从而影响美元走势,仍有待观察。

此外,有交易员认为,美联储12月加息已经被市场消化,但税改计划可能延后意味着明年加息可能放缓。这可能支撑金价。

Natixis贵金属分析师Bernard Dahda则持相反观点,他认为,越是接近12月加息,金价应该越低。

现货需求方面,有贵金属行业分析师提示称,今年四季印度黄金进口可能同比下跌25%,因重要节日季黄金需求下滑。此外,投资者寻求股市等风险资产的更高回报,也使得黄金的吸引力西站只能。

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