行业资讯

大幅下调预期 美银美林直言黄金2018年一季度或跌向1250

日期:2017-11-01
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)分析师表示,债券收益率走高和美元走强将在2018年初严重施压金价。
  

在周一(10月30日)的报告中,该行下调了对金价2018年一季度的预期。该行分析师目前预期2018年第一季度的黄金均价为1250美元/盎司,此前预计为平均1400美元/盎司。
  

不断上升的利率和债券收益率可能是黄金进入年底的最大风险。美银美林坚持认为,预计10年期美债收益率在2017年年底将达到2.85%,或创四年来的最高水平。
  
大幅下调预期 美银美林直言黄金2018年一季度或跌向1250(图1)
不过,这一前景取决于华府政客们能否推动特朗普雄心勃勃的减税计划以及计划的改革。
  

该行利率分析师称:“我们的年底预期高度依赖税革的结果。在这方面,我们比市场共识更乐观,相信税收改革将在年底或2018年初提振10年期溢价40-60个基点。如果税收改革失败,我们将会调低我们的预期。”
  

尽管该行对金价出现看空情绪,但其表示1,250美元将是金价底部。该行也指出,有几个因素可能会推高金价,包括美联储又一轮鸽派、股市的回调以及美国政治的持续动荡。

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