行业资讯

全球十大地缘政治风险 朝鲜排不上头号?

日期:2017-10-23
当今全球局势动荡令许多投资者惴惴不安,贝莱德首席多种资产策略师Isabelle Mateos y Lago认为,没什么比北美贸易谈判对市场构成的地缘政治风险更大了。
  

Mateos y Lago称,预期的基本情境是北美贸易谈判在2018年初完成,但对该结果的期望近期有所降低,因美国谈判代表强硬的立场与美国总统特朗普威胁性言语加大了不确定性。
  

第四轮北美自由贸易协定谈判于本周结束,墨西哥与加拿大拒绝接受他们认为过于严苛的美国提议。下一轮谈判将于下个月在墨西哥举行。
  
全球十大地缘政治风险 朝鲜排不上头号?(图1)
Mateos y Lago警告说,鉴于投资者已经预期谈判结果良好,市场面临的风险更偏下行。
  

她还表示,除了北美贸易谈判,朝鲜威胁与中美关系也是令人不安的主要问题。
  

她指出,朝鲜导弹与核武器项目是地区稳定、美国安全与核不扩散面临的主要威胁,但全面爆发战争的可能性很低。另外,从长远来看,贸易与市场准入争端使得美国和中国竞争日益激烈,但相信市场尚未将此纳入考量。
  

综上,Mateos y Lago认为北美贸易谈判对市场构成的风险甚于朝鲜。在此背景下,她建议投资者将长期政府债券纳入投资组合以分散风险。
 
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