行业资讯

金价回吐所有QE支撑 料明年在950至1280间

日期:2015-12-18
 丰业银行(ScotiaMocatta)近日称,明年将是黄金市场的一个“新篇章”,不过总体黄金市场情绪依然看空。

  丰业银行认为,尽管金价可能进一步走低,但会继续在1100美元/盎司上下的水平。

  “总体状况将发生变化,全球自金融危机以来的宽松货产品政策阶段即将结束。”

  不过丰业银行认为,金价和2005至2007年有很大相关,因此金价可能进一步走低。

  “金价目前基本上把整个QE阶段的涨幅都回吐掉了,目前市场在金融危机后大流通性过后的状态中会处在下跌或观望的交易阶段。”

  该行表示,技术面来看,金价可能跌至1000美元/盎司,表明QE获得的支撑都已消失殆尽。

  上行而言,分析师指出20个月移动水平1198美元/盎司是关键,此外还要关注1127美元/盎司的阻力水平。

  另外,美联储升息推动美元对黄金也是一大不利因素。但丰业银行的分析师们认为,美元走高会促使新兴市场中的投资者们寻求黄金作为避险保值品。因此,美元走高未必意味着金价一定下跌。

  此外,该行还预计在全球经济放缓的情况下,实物黄金需求会有增加,为金价带来支撑。

  “2016年黄金的所有需求都会有增加。”

  丰业银行预计明年金价在950至1280美元/盎司间。
 
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