行业资讯

明年金价持续下跌 明年年底前跌至950

日期:2015-12-11
        华侨银行(OCBC)经济学家预测称,明年年底前金价将跌至950美元/盎司,并且预计明年每一季度金价都将下跌。

  该经济学家是近几年彭博追踪的分析师中对金价预测最为准确的一位。

  他认为,对金价看空主要是因为美国经济改善并且美联储升息。

  “随着增长情绪的改善并且美国利率上升,市场对收益率的钟爱和对风险的偏好将具统治性。黄金是避险资产,没有什么理由把资金放入这种没有回报的资产中。”

  今年将是黄金市场连续第三年下跌,是2000年以来最长的连续下跌。

  不过他表示,中国增长可能放缓以及全球经济的不确定性可能使得投资者追求避险,将金价推高至1200美元/盎司水平。

  “指数目前而言,纸面市场的黄金需求是很平淡的。”他认为黄金ETF的持有量在明年将进一步减少。今年黄金ETF的持有量已经减少了超过8%,至2009年2月以来的最低水平。 
 
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