行业资讯

美联储升息未必对黄金不利

日期:2015-03-20
本周的联储不出市场预料剔除了“耐心”的措辞,但整体偏鸽派的倾向却拉低了美元而推动金价的上涨。
 
某投资专家称,目前美联储的升息是黄金市场等待的最后一个谜题,并且长期来看,更高的利率未必对黄金不利。
 
  他表示:“40%的黄金需求是来自中国和印度的,而这和美国的货产品政策是不相关的,我们预计这些关键市场的需求会再次增加,无论美联储怎么做。”
  
不过他承认,对升息的预期会推动美元和美国国债收益率,因此对黄金不利,并且美联储第一次升息将会打压黄金。
 
  “升息后金价下跌是合理的,利率代表着黄金的持有成本。经济的改善和金融状况也会使得货产品政策正常化,这也会减少避险需求。”
  
但他指出,美国利率上升要从整体历史环境来看。美国的联邦资金利率到2017年会达到3.5%,远低于近两个紧缩周期的高点。
 
“如果美联储紧缩减弱全球股市,那么黄金会从中受益。”他仍然预计年底金价将涨至1400美元/盎司。
 
 
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