汇市新闻

美国货币政策或将逆转 明年黄金将问鼎千三

日期:2018-11-29
一家研究公司表示,随着贵金属市场价值继续增长,投资者预计明年贵金属市场将缓慢走高。
 
  凯投宏观继续看好黄金和白银的潜力,因美国经济放缓迫使美联储提前结束紧缩周期。
 
  Ross Strachan是该公司的资深大宗商品经济学家。其在接受Kitco News电话采访时表示,增长预期下降将拖累股市,而债券利率将低于预期。
 
  他表示:“随着明年债券和股票的吸引力减弱,我们认为投资者将转向黄金和白银,寻找价值。”
 
  该公司在最新预测中预计,2019年底金价将达到1,300美元/盎司,白银价格将升至17美元/盎司。最新的预测与他们以前的预测相对没有变化。该预测分别代表了6%和20%的涨幅。周三(11月28日),2月份黄金期货最新报1,228.20美元/盎司,当日上涨0.69美元;与此同时,白银价格最新报14.30美元/盎司,当日上涨1.53%。
 
  Strachan称:“黄金市场不会火爆,但避险资产的配置将增加。”
 
  Strachan补充称,投资者应预期金价将在下半年反弹,因他们预期美联储将在上半年前进行最后两次升息。
 
  展望未来一年,凯透宏观认为美国货币政策可能逆转,将进一步刺激黄金和白银。该公司预计,到2020年底,金价将升至1,400美元/盎司,白银价格将触及18美元/盎司。
 
  尽管凯透宏观仍看好金价未来走势,但Strachan指出,市场仍缺少一个推动金价突破1,300美元关口的因素:更高的通胀。
 
  “尽管通胀给黄金带来上行风险,但我们并未看到经济过热的威胁,”Strachan称。“明年通胀不会是一个主要因素。”

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