汇市新闻

美联储准三号人物:重申年内加息3-4次 经济强劲没有推高中性利率

日期:2018-05-16
 Williams表示,通胀正接近美联储2%的目标,失业率为2000年以来的最低点,这增强了他对经济前景的信心。
 
  投资者预计,美联储将在今年6月FOMC会议上年内第二次加息,并预计整个年度可能会有3-4次加息。
美联储准三号人物:重申年内加息3-4次 经济强劲没有推高中性利率(图1)
 
  即将出任纽约联储主席的Williams表示,中性利率处于2.5%上下,人口老龄化以及全球对避险资产的需求影响了中性利率。
 
  中性率是既不刺激经济也不抑制经济的利率水平。目前,美联储只需再加息三次就可令利率接近2.5%的水平。这意味着美联储长达10年的宽松政策的终结。那么,接下来会发生什么?
 
  Williams表示,他认为继续加息是“货币政策正确的方向”,但他认为没有证据表明,在乐观的前景下,中性利率有所上升。而财政政策等措施或将带来更强劲的经济增长。
 
  他说:“即使我们提高利率,我也意识到支配r-star(中立利率)的基本面因素低于我们过去看到的水平。新的常态短期利率约为2.5%,这意味着相对于历史经验,利率可能维持在低位。”
 
  对于美联储来说,就中性利率达成共识十分重要。这将塑造美联储未来政策走向的蓝图。

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