汇市新闻

本周美债风暴席卷而来 外国央行成救命稻草

日期:2018-03-28
        固守产品交易者将面临又一波创历史的发债,预期一周高达2940亿美元的新债会被认购。  
 
  不过投资者对此表示乐观,今年以来几周的巨额发债都未能对债市造成多少冲击。
 
  有一个合理的解释是市场对债市收益率非常满意,因此需求保持旺盛。
 
  仅仅数周前,市场还在担忧美债收益率是否足够吸引投资人。
 
  债市空头纷纷发声表示收益率会突破3%,并对股市造成巨大威胁。
 
  不过通胀放缓迹象和股市波动加剧让债市获得喘息,收益率进入窄幅振荡。
 
  一些分析师称,市场已经基本消化了眼前的发债。
 本周美债风暴席卷而来 外国央行成救命稻草(图1)
  此前经济学家批评税改和扩大支出等政策导致美国财政赤字陷入了很危险的境地。
 
  3年美债已经展示了出了颓势,收益率自从去年9月以来不断攀升逾0.7个百分点。
 
  一些债市多头相信疯狂发债还是难以让收益率上涨,原因是美债代表着最稳定的避险投资。
 
  PGIM高级投资组合经理Greg Peters称,供应面的变动是沧海一粟,高品质资产依然稀缺。
 
  根据经济学教授Barry Eichengreen的研究,来自主要发达经济体AAA-和AA-评级征服债总价值在2015年占全球GDP的10%,远低于2009年大约40%。
 
  野村(Nomura)美国固收策略主管George Goncalves称,外国央行开始重返美债市场。
 
  通常央行更注重的是择机建立外汇储备,这可能对美债需求形成重大支撑。
 
 
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