汇市新闻

野村称美联储今年或升息4次

日期:2018-02-23
北京时间周四(2月22日)美联储公布1月会议纪要,针对此次纪要,野村证券(Nomura)研究团队撰文分析如下:

该行提出了今年美联储将加息4次的理由。

野村指出,1月纪要的讨论了以下内容,包括1月会议来积极的经济数据,以及联邦支出大幅增加的确定性上升,这令我们预期3月经济预测摘要(SEP)将显示出更快的经济增长、更低的失业率,以及可能触及更高的通胀水平。
野村称美联储今年或升息4次(图1)
从这方面来看,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的下一轮预测很可能会显示出更多次加息。

我们认为,考虑到今年1月会议以来的情况,今年的预测中值较不可能从3次上调至4次。但在我们的判断中,这仍然是一个可能的意外事件。

不过,我们预计美联储官员将继续保持一致,即FOMC将在今年加息四次。

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