汇市新闻

美银美林:欧洲央行决议前瞻分析

日期:2018-01-24
周四(1月25日)市场将迎来本周重磅事件——欧洲央行1月利率决议。

  

针对此次会议,美银美林(BoAML)撰文进行前瞻分析,指出此次会议并非易事,具体内容如下:

  

该行指出,预计本周欧洲央行重点将是对前瞻性指引进行逐步改变,2018年不太可能会升息。

  

我们认为本周德拉基讲话将会更偏鸽派,到2020年升息可能会更为激进。  

美银美林:欧洲央行决议前瞻分析(图1)

汇市方面,欧元的周期性突出表现可能正在进行中,对德拉基在新闻发布会的讲话格外敏感。

  

美银美林还指出,在前两周,市场已经对欧洲央行每一位讲话官员都做出了反应。与欧洲央行去年10月的“平静”不同,这显然表明,本周的新闻发布会对德拉基来说并不容易。

  

在我们看来,这反映出我们此前强调的观点:改变前瞻性指引的一部分将引发市场对每一方面的质疑。

  

目前来看,预计德拉基将会强调任何对前瞻指引的改变只会是逐步进行的。预计年底会升息的人将会失望而归。

  

最后,我们预计本周除了移除QE的不对称之外,本周不会有什么重大变化。
 

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