汇市新闻

加拿大丰业银行:美/加远低于公允价值预估

日期:2018-01-19
周五(1月19日)亚市早盘,美元/加元位于1.2425附近水平徘徊。


日内加拿大丰业银行(Scotiabank)外汇分析师撰文指出,本次加拿大央行(BOC)为中性升息,是在货币政策制定者达成平衡基调的情况下进行的。

  

加拿大央行升息符合市场普遍预期,但丰业银行分析师强调北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)谈判面临的风险。

  

该行分析师指出,加拿大央行承认经济数据的持续改善,但担忧北美自由贸易协定谈判以及和潜在增长和工资相关的不确定性。

  

加拿大丰业银行:美/加远低于公允价值预估(图1)

与此同时,加拿大央行利率预期依然不变,利率市场认为今年剩余时间该央行升息的概率为60%。

  

但丰业银行分析师指出,美国和加拿大2年期息差依然高企,美元/加元远低于公允价值预估隐含的1.2750-1.2900水平。

  

加拿大丰业银行分析师并指出,在周五(1月19日)晚间加拿大公布制造业数据之前,美元/加元面临的短期风险有限。接下来聚焦加拿大零售销售和CPI数据,且下周将举行北美自由贸易协定谈判。

  

北京时间09:50,美元/加元报1.2421/25。


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