汇市新闻

美元还要跌!大摩坚定站在空头阵营

日期:2018-01-08
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)在每周精选研究报告中指出,美元将继续“跌跌不休”。内容如下:

从全球增长方面来看,全球经济持续走强,且波动性保持在低位,这些继续支持资产价格。

  

另外,扩张性的货币政策通过充足的流动性增加进一步的支持。

  

相对于融资成本,名义经济增长继续上升,这些为杠杆和收益提高的交易创造了强大的动力。

  

从流动性和套息交易来看,在没有央行加大紧缩力度或全球储蓄减少的情况下,债券收益率不太可能大幅上升。

美元还要跌!大摩坚定站在空头阵营(图1)

  

美联储透明、渐进的紧缩政策与2004-2006年的周期相似,但在此期间,在套息交易逆转之前,实际的十年期利率必须上升至2.5%,比当前水平高200个基点。

  

美元方面,我们认为,美元和瑞郎应充当主要的融资货币。欧元和日元不再具备融资货币的资格。

  

目前后端利率对市场的影响比前端利率更大,远期收益率差应该利于欧元和日元。

  

量化宽松和紧缩的财政政策减少了外国持有的以欧元计价的资产,但外国对美元资产的持有实际上已经上升。

  

如果美国利率上升或美国的资产表现不理想,这些外国投资者可能会开始重新考虑他们的海外风险敞口。因此,美国利率和美元/日元不太可能会同步上涨。

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