汇市新闻

美联储鹰派纪要再现 3月或打响升息“第一枪”

日期:2018-01-04
周三(1月3日)美联储公布12月会议纪要,针对此次纪要,野村证券(Nomura)北美经济团队撰文分析如下:

该行认为此次纪要强化了他们的观点,即美联储2018年升息3次,首次升息料在3月。与此前公布的9月、11月会议纪要相比,12月会议纪要整体对通胀的讨论类似。
美联储鹰派纪要再现 3月或打响升息“第一枪”(图1)
有所不同的是,12月纪要中关于税收政策影响的辩论更激烈,许多委员预期减税将会在明年适度提振经济增长。

此外,会议纪要还包含了关于收益率曲线趋平的讨论。委员普遍认为,目前这不是一个令人担忧的问题。

鉴于FOMC对产出前景改善,税收是缘由之一,通胀前景几乎没有变化以及12月会议以来经济的总体利好消息,日内的会议纪要强化我们对2018年三次加息的预期,第一次升息预计将在3月举行。

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