汇市新闻

丹斯克:欧洲央行2018年政策走向前瞻

日期:2018-01-03
欧元区经济继续延续了稳步增长态势,欧洲央行从2017年10月份开始削减QE规模,并将从2018年1月份起将月度QE规模从600亿欧元降至300亿欧元,持续九个月。

针对2018年欧洲央行的政策走向,丹斯克银行(Danske Bank)分析师周三(1月3日)撰文如下:
 

丹斯克:欧洲央行2018年政策走向前瞻(图1)

该行指出,由于持续低迷的通胀前景和瑞典方面的现状,脆弱的房地产市场已成为瑞典央行维持谨慎的另一理由,预计欧元区的“货币政策正常化”计划将缓慢逐步进行。
 

我们强调的是,当市场意识到放松货币政策的央行发生转变时,实际的加息就没有那么重要。在我们看来,欧洲央行在2017年6月迈出了第一步,剔除进一步降息的选项,并开始讨论再通胀(而不是通缩)的风险。
 

至于2018年,我们认为欧洲央行将会释放下一步“正常化”交易,可能会在年末左右宣布结束QE。此外,在房地产没有崩盘的情况下,我们相信瑞典央行将在一段时间内继续对欧洲央行产生影响。
 

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