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欧银决议后 欧元/美元前景分析

日期:2017-12-15
周五(12月15日)亚市早盘,欧元/美元扳回盘初跌幅,目前徘徊在1.1786水平附近。上日欧洲央行公布利率决议拖累欧元走低。

针对此次会议后的欧元走势,市场分析师Ashraf Laidi撰文如下:

周四欧洲央行维持三大利率不变,但该央行上调了经济增长和通胀预期。欧洲央行将2017年GDP增速从2.2%上调至2.4%,2018年GDP增速从1.8%上调至2.3%,2019年增速从1.7%上调至1.9%。

欧银决议后 欧元/美元前景分析(图1)

但在随后的记者提问环节中,德拉基在提及通胀时称,通胀“依然低迷”,委员会没有讨论过切断资产购债项目与通胀之间的指引联系,购债计划不会突然中止。

考虑到能源价格上涨,预计通胀会小幅上升,这可能会在一定程度上提振欧元。

尽管德拉基一直以言辞控制货币出名,但预计欧元/美元在明年一季度中期有望升向1.23。

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