2017年日本经济和金融市场的发展与2005年相似，这使得日本政府和日本央行（BOJ）对明年的过早退出宽松货币政策更加谨慎。
除非出现积极的通胀意外，否则日本将面临更长期宽松政策的风险。虽然欧洲央行（ECB）和英国央行（BOE）正加入货币政策正常化阵营，但预计日本央行的步伐将大幅滞后。
日本央行和其他主要央行的货币政策背离局面料持续至2018年，从而将削弱日元兑主要货币的汇率。与此同时，本行对明年欧元/日元走势尤其看好。
进入2018年前，这一政策背离均料维持较大幅度，因此打压日元兑主要货币，尤其看涨下一年欧元/日元的走势。
目前预计欧元/日元2018年将涨向153-154区域。
北京时间07:50，欧元/日元报132.21/31。
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