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德商银行:年底前 美元暗藏的最大风险竟是?

日期:2017-11-23
德国商业银行(Commerzbank)分析师周三(11月23日)在每日报告中撰文就美元至年底的风险进行分析,内容如下:

该行指出,至年底前,货币政策方面不太可能会给美元提供任何动能。

耶伦在下一轮美联储主席竞争已经落选。目前市场参与者对新任主席鲍威尔的货币政策观点可能更感兴趣。

不过到目前为止,鲍威尔最显而易见的的品质是他的“不显眼”。

德商银行:年底前 美元暗藏的最大风险竟是?(图1)

因此,美元在年底前的剩余几周内,最大的风险将是政治方面。例如,国会可能会在年底前对税收改革做出意外积极的评价,并同意在年底前进行税改。

预计参议员将在未来10天内对税改方案投票表决。

之后,两大议院的代表将一起合并两个不同版本的法案。鉴于目前存在的巨大差异,这可能会变成一项艰巨的任务,但或许我们不应低估共和党人的意志,他们现在迫切需要立法上的成功。

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