汇市新闻

高盛:美联储明年将加息四次 美元或贬值1%-2%

日期:2017-11-22
“明年全球经济增长会加快至4%,我们预期美联储明年将加息4次,每次加息的幅度为25个基点,由于目前美国的真实利率仍徘徊在零左右,经济增长强劲及低失业率不断推升工资,当局需要防止经济过热,因此加息的速度可能会快于市场预期。”高盛亚太区首席经济分析师迪安竹(Andrew Tilton)在11月21日的记者会表示。

高盛对美国增长前景乐观,预期明年全年增长2.5%,失业率明年底降至3.7%,并认为美国就业市场将持续改善,成为自二战以来的最佳时期之一。

高盛:美联储明年将加息四次 美元或贬值1%-2% (图1)

今年至今,美联储两度加息,然而美元指数却不见起色。截至11月21日,衡量美元兑一篮子货币的美元指数录得约8%的跌幅。相比之下,同期彭博-摩根大通亚洲美元指数却上涨约5%,这意味着期内亚洲主要货币兑美元均出现一定升幅。

同时,迪安竹预期,明年美元有机会贬值1%-2%,“主要是市场未必能充分消化加息因素,事实上,上一个加息周期市场只反映了部分的加息影响。考虑到全球其它央行陆续收紧货币政策,从而抵消了加息对美元的利好因素。”

此外,他坦言,尽管美联储加快加息步伐,但欧洲央行、日本央行仍为市场提供大量的流动性,“整个全球市场仍处于量化宽松的环境之中。”

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