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美联储卡普兰:通胀将逐步升向目标 对加息持开放态度

日期:2017-11-17
美国达拉斯联储主席卡普兰(Robert Kaplan)周四(11月16日)表示,美联储会正在2%的通货膨胀目标上取得一些进展,并对继续渐进加息持开放性和积极思考的态度。

卡普兰当天在休斯敦演讲时称,他预计劳动力市场将继续摆脱疲软,并且对经济增长有信心,因为家庭杠杆已经降低。他表示,“如果美国经济发展远远超越充分就业水平,就有理由加息了。”

他认为,“对未来的会议可能加息的观点持开放态度,审慎风险管理意味着采取部分行动逐步且耐心地去除宽松。当认为不太可能很快重回零利率水平时,逐步缩表的进程便会开启。”

据CME的“美联储观察”显示,美联储12月加息25个基点至1.25%-1.5%区间的概率为91.5%,明年3月至该区间的概率为50.2%。卡普兰今年在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)拥有政策投票权。
 

美联储卡普兰:通胀将逐步升向目标 对加息持开放态度(图1)

他还指出,”我们尚未达到中性利率,但距离并不遥远。较低的中性利率意味着收益率曲线会更平坦。”

鉴于美联储现任理事鲍威尔已获提名在明年2月接掌美联储,卡普兰对此评论称,“鲍威尔当选美联储主席意味着政策的延续性,新任美联储理事如夸尔斯可能有新的观点。”

他还补充道,“任何良好组织都需要改革,美联储拥有辩论的良好流程。美联储应该评估其管理方式、架构、目标以及对小型银行的监管。”

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