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巴克莱:英国央行到2019年底还会再加息两次

日期:2017-11-10
巴克莱(Barclays)策略师Sreekala Kochugovindan周四(11月9日)在报告中称,预计英国央行(BOE)未来两年里将加息两次,之前该行预计英国央行会一直按兵不动直至2018年。

英国央行上周四(11月2日)宣布加息25个基点,为10年来首次。但该央行暗示短期内不会再次加息,因此市场将此次行动被市场解读为“鸽派加息”,英镑/美元却决议公布后暴跌逾1%至一个月低位。周五(10月10日)亚洲时段盘初,英镑/美元报1.3143。

巴克莱:英国央行到2019年底还会再加息两次(图1)

英国央行的加息决定抵消了去年退欧公投后实施的紧急刺激政策。最重要的是,决策者在此次的会议声明中略去了以前常用的说法:可能需要比市场预期更多的加息。

Kochugovindan在报告中写道,“英国央行11月的加息行动暗示,低生产率和输入型通胀已经足以构成加息的理由,即便这会导致整体经济增速降低。”

巴克莱现预计,英国央行将在2018年11月份加息25基点,2019年11月份再加息一次。

该行还补充道,预测所面临的风险包括:英镑大幅升值、周期性下行以及薪资意外升温。

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