汇市新闻

中金公司:美联储明年料加息三次 短期美元或维持强势

日期:2017-11-02
联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三(11月1日)如期宣布维持利率不变,表示美国经济“稳健”增长,劳动力市场继续增强,且对近期遭受飓风的影响轻描淡写,表明仍在12月升息的轨道上。不过,该委员会并未在会后声明中公开表示自己的立场。
  
美联储(FED)今年已经两次加息,这是一项缓慢但稳定的货币政策正常化计划的一部分。据CME“美联储观察”:美联储决议公布之后,美联储12月加息25个基点至1.25%-1.5%区间的概率为96.2%,决议公布之前为95.2%,明年3月至该区间的概率由此前的55.3%升至57%。
中金公司:美联储明年料加息三次 短期美元或维持强势(图1)

除了升息,美联储在10月开始逐步减少其4.5万亿美元的资产负债表,其主要包括央行购买的债券,通过降低抵押贷款利率,引导投资者购买股票和公司债券等风险资产来刺激经济。
  
关于汇价方面,该投行预计,由于特朗普税改很可能在明年上半年兑现,因此短期内美元指数可能维持强势。
  
欧洲央行方面,中金表示,欧央行已经确定明年1-9月的政策路径,即300亿欧元美元的量化宽松(QE)购买力度,短期内欧央行货币政策将一直按兵不动,市场对此也不会有什么预期。
 
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