汇市新闻

BBH:市场接受12月份美联储加息的可能性

日期:2017-10-10
布朗兄弟哈里曼(Brown Brothers Harriman)中称,金融市场仍然预期美联储将于2017年加息,但本周仍将密切关注零售销售和消费者物价指数。
 

BBH称:“过去几周,市场已经接受了12月份美联储加息的可能性。12月联储基金期货合约的定价与大约80%的机会一致。美国非农就业数据在上周五公布,这两年期国债收益率是在预期年末联储基金目标范围的上限交易,在一个月前下滑到目前的幅度之后。
 

BBH:市场接受12月份美联储加息的可能性(图1)
BBH说,上个月有就业岗位减少了3.3万份,被飓风影响扭曲了。然而,小时收入指向工资上涨。周五零售销售和CPI报告即将公布。 “可以肯定的是,数据不会很干净,因为某些部分会被飓风所扭曲,扭曲可能会对上涨有影响。汽油价格飙升,这将是头条新闻所喜欢的,但还有更多。在诸如风暴蹂躏地区的家用电器等产品的在库存/销售比率方面看起来相对较紧张。也就是说,美联储官员曾经注意到的短暂的趋势不会阻碍通胀,实际上正在下滑。此外,与此相关的事实是广度不断增加。”
 
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