汇市新闻

大华银行:欧元、英镑、日元、澳元及纽元技术分析

日期:2017-10-06
大华银行(UOB)周四(10月3日)对当前外汇市场主要货币对作出简要技术分析,具体内容如下:
  

欧元/美元:看平,回调有延续至1.1660的空间。欧元昨日交投相对平静,今日维持这一观点不变。我们仍我认为当前的回调有继续走低并测试8月低位1.1660的空间。当前阶段,料不会明确跌破这一水平。上行当选,只有升至1.1820上方才表明当前的温和看跌压力有所缓解。
  

英镑/美元:看平,如纽市收于1.3225下方将看跌。该货币对昨日收盘基本上保持不变,但我们仍认为未来数日有深跌的风险。不过,只有日线收于上升趋势线支撑1.3225下方才表明跌向1.3100的趋势已经开始。这一情形不足为奇,除非未来一两日其能攀升并维持在1.3325上方。
  

大华银行:欧元、英镑、日元、澳元及纽元技术分析(图1)
美元/日元:看涨,进一步上涨的几率降低,多头或将退出一半头寸(维持此前观点不变)。尽管整体上偏于看涨,但美元仍未能取得很大进展,且难以在113.00上方站稳脚跟。上行势头已经减弱,进一步攀升至113.80的可能性已经降低。然而,只有跌至112.20下方(止损水平保持不变)才表明,上周五开始的看多阶段已经结束。持仓方面,从112.40开始做多的投资者可能会倾向于在112.75退出他们的一半仓位。
  

澳元/美元:看跌,进一步下跌的概率降低(维持此前观点不变)。尽管澳元昨日触及了新低0.7785,但疲态转瞬即逝。我们维持此前的观点,即“不排除会进一步跌向0.7740,但概率不高。”昨日的走势强化了我们的观点。展望后市,下行动能进一步减弱,进一步跌向0.7740的概率大幅降低。话虽如此,只有升至0.7880上方才表明始于9月22日的看跌阶段已经结束。持仓方面,我们此前建议,自0.7930做空的投资者应寻找在0.7820出脱半数仓位,如汇价再次跌向0.7785/90,仍在做空的投资者应寻求出脱其余仓位。
  

纽元/美元:看平,有回调至0.7135的空间。我们仍预计汇价将跌向8月低位0.7135。如跌至这一水平下方将不足为奇,但0.7100处存在另一强劲支撑。整体上,未来数日纽元料将继续承压,除非其能收复0.7205(关键阻力自0.7240下移)。


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