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花旗:特朗普公布税改细节

日期:2017-09-29
美国共和党与总统特朗普公布税务改革建议细节。
 

一如预期把利得税率由35%降至20%,以及个人入息率税阶只分为三级(12%、25%与35%)。
 

花旗观点:我们认为,比较全面税改法案有望在2018年第一季度出现,仍在我们预期范围内(2017年4季度末:较早到期日;2018年2季度初:较晚到期日) 。
 

花旗基本预测:我们将财政刺激计划开始积极影响美国经济的时期预测,从2017年4季度更改到2018年2季度。然而,联邦政府政策,对实际国内生产总值增长的贡献率,或不会受到税改法案延迟的影响。 

花旗:特朗普公布税改细节(图1)
我们之所以有这样时间判断上的改变,主要是考虑到联邦政府对风灾救济的支出。
 

2018年选举限制了国会处理复杂立法问题的时间。
 

随着选举时间的接近,立法机关越有可能推行具有临时减税、更大赤字和适度改革的法案。
 

九月份投资策略,侧重非美元资产。 投资者关注美国债务上限,或北韩问题,所以可考虑减低投资组合波动性。
 
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