汇市新闻

丹斯克:英银鸽派转向 欧元/英镑料进一步上涨

日期:2017-08-04
丹斯克银行(Danske Bank)分析师撰文就英国央行利率决议及之后的英镑走势进行分析,具体内容如下:

该行研究团队依旧认为英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)及卡尼的言论倾向于鸽派,此前该央行比6:2维持利率不变。
  

我们依旧认为英国央行将按兵不动,直至脱欧谈判在2019年结束。主要原因是我们认为英国央行对薪资增长和GDP增长过于乐观,因脱欧带来的政治不确定性依旧高企。
  

欧元/英镑大幅增长,在声明公布后突破0.90,英国央行如预期保持鸽派。市场目前暗示,11月升息的概率为35%,预期升息8.5个基点,声明公布前预计为9.5个基点。
  

我们预期,受欧元走强和重新定价英国央行的影响,欧元/英镑在未来1-3个月将测试更高的水平。
 
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