汇市新闻

法国农贷:G10货币套利交易是否会大举回归?

日期:2017-06-28
  周三(6月28日)法国农业信贷银行(Credit Agricole)外汇策略师撰文对当前汇市走势作出简要分析,具体内容如下:

     当前市场的利差和波动性环境均不支持全面复苏G10货币套利交易。

     套利交易的光辉历史是由大宗商品市场的历史性牛市行情所引发的,因这支持高的增长率和大宗商品出口国实际利率。或因美联储(FED)实施量化宽松政策所引发的货币政策背离程度非常大,尤其在第一轮QE中。

     但目前上述条件似乎还没有出现,G10国家的经济周期更同步,利率差异更小。

     若G10货币的利差交易大举回归,则近期将可能看到澳元、纽元和美元利率大幅上升,但在我们看来这是不可能的,因澳洲联储(RBA)和新西兰联储(RBNZ)货币政策基本维持稳定,而美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)正在逐步接近其利率正常化周期。
 


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