汇市新闻

三菱东京日联银行:欧元/美元估值模型显示短期反应过度

日期:2017-05-29

    三菱东京日联银行(BTMU)外汇策略研究团队指出,近来欧元的上行动能有所减弱,暗示近期许多利好消息已被消化。
 
 此外,过去一周,欧洲央行行长德拉吉、欧洲央行首席经济学家普雷特和欧洲央行副行长康斯坦西奥都继续发表温和的言论突显出,有可能未来市场可能有点期待更多的物质本身的改变政策。这突显出市场预计政策会发生更大的变化可能存在稍微超前的风险。
 
 这与我们的短期估值模型的信号相一致,即当前的现货价格略微超越了关键的基本面因素。
 
 美国政治风险加剧了美元的近期疲软。如果美联储计划在6月再次加息,那么美元进一步走软的余地应该受到抑制。
 
 短期内,我们对欧元/美元前景保持中性立场,预计其将在1.10-1.14区间范围内交投。

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