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美联储纪要:今年开始“缩表”是合适的

日期:2017-05-26
美联储纪要:今年开始“缩表”是合适的(图1)
 
       当地时间24日,美联储公布的5月份货币政策会议纪要显示,绝大多数美联储官员认为如果经济增长符合预期,美联储将很快加息。
 
  纪要显示,尽管近期美国消费和通胀数据不如预期,但美联储官员对经济和通胀率的预测较3月份基本没有变化。纪要还显示,美联储还就缩减其4.5万亿美元资产负债表达成共识。几乎所有官员认为,如果经济增长和加息路径符合预期,今年开始缩减资产负债表是合适的。官员们倾向于逐步允许债券到期,不再进行再投资,即对每月到期不再投资的债券规模设定上限,并每3个月提高一次上限,从而逐步将资产负债表降至正常水平。
 
美联储纪要:今年开始“缩表”是合适的(图2)
 
  纪要公布后,美国联邦基金利率期货走势显示,交易商预计美联储6月加息的机率有所上升,达到83%。花旗经济学家认为,美联储可能准备好要比预期更早宣布“缩表”。相对于此前估计12月宣布“缩表”的预期,9月可能会发布“缩表”声明的风险有所增强。
 
  自2008年底至2014年10月,美联储先后出台三轮量化宽松政策。此外,美联储资产负债表的规模从金融危机前的不到1万亿美元增长到4.5万亿美元,通过将到期的证券进行再投资,美联储维持其资产负债表规模在高位水平。
美联储纪要:今年开始“缩表”是合适的(图3)

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