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巴克莱:美联储下周货币政策会议会说些什么?

日期:2017-04-28
 
       随着美联储下周三(5月3日)即将召开5月货币政策会议,巴克莱(Barclay)周四(4月27日)在报告中称,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下周的政策声明可能会及一季度的经济活动和个人消费放缓,同时表明依然维持货币政策正常化计划。
 
  周五(4月29日)美国将公布重磅的一季度GDP数据。在周四(4月27日)公布的耐用品订单数据弱于预期后,据亚特兰大联储主席GDP Now模型显示,美国一季度GDP年化可能仅增长0.2%,此前预估为增长0.5%。

巴克莱:美联储下周货币政策会议会说些什么?(图1)
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  巴克莱经济学家Michael Gapen与Rob Martin在报告中写道,“当前延迟加息的门槛已经上升。美联储将表示第一季度经济放缓是暂时性的,劳动力市场在持续改善。”
 
  该行还指出,尽管美国3月CPI低于预期,但下周美联储将作出结论认为可以进一步收紧政策,同时预测通胀将会走强。另外,美联储将不会修改再投资政策的表述。
 
  巴克莱预计美联储今年还将再加息两次,分别在6月和9月。同时,缩减资产负债表将从今年12月开始。

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