汇市新闻

瑞银:年底前英镑兑美元可升至1.30上方

日期:2017-03-01
  尽管众多市场分析认为英镑将在未来数月内下跌,但瑞银近日表示,即使是在退欧谈判开始的情况下,英镑兑美元也将小幅上升
 
  当被问及市场对英镑将跌至1.20美元甚至1.10美元每英镑的预期,瑞银财富管理英国投资办公室主管称,他的预期与之相反。
 
  他对CNBC表示,英镑兑美元可在年底前升至1.30上方。
 
  自退欧公投后英镑就大幅贬值,近期又承压于对硬退欧以及苏格兰独立公投的担忧。但Yu认为英镑在未来数月内将受到两大因素的支撑。其一是估值。此前摩根士丹利也曾表示英镑目前估价过低,并预期英镑或将回升至退欧公投前的水平。
 
  “第二点是,如果你关注货币在短期内的走向,关注期权市场和避险天堂,你就会发现英国并不像看起来那样糟。”
 
  然而,另一方的观点也言之凿凿。德意志银行外汇研究部联合主管本月早些时候称,一旦英国退欧形势转至“极其复杂化”,英镑兑美元可跌至1.05。
 
  德意志银行外汇研究部联合主管说道:“即使双方的意愿相当积极,我们仍非常担忧在两年内完成谈判的时间紧迫性,我们还担心谈判进程会因英国离开欧盟需支付资金之类的问题受阻。”
 
  德意志银行外汇研究部联合主管称,德意志银行预期英镑兑美元将跌至1.10下方,甚至可跌至1.08或1.05。
 
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