汇市新闻

德意志银行:美国近期通胀数据上涨对美联储意味着什么?

日期:2017-02-17
  德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)近期撰文就美国近期通胀数据上涨和数据依赖型美联储(FED)之间的关系作出分析,具体内容如下:
 
  该行表示,美国1月消费者物价指数(CPI)在通胀和核心通胀方面稳健上涨。
 
  美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示,美国1月CPI月率增长0.6%,大幅高于预期,创2013年2月以来新高。
 
  数据还显示,1月CPI同比也进一步升至2.5%,创2012年3月以来新高。
 
  该行还指出,素有“恐怖数据”之称的零售销售(不包括汽车、建筑和汽油供应)上月表现优于预期。
 
  美国商务部的报告称,美国1月零售销售月率增长0.4%,超过预期的0.1%,不过低于前值的增长1.0%...
 
  报告指出,在13个主要零售行业中,有10个行业的零售数据都在1月份表现出回升趋势,主要由电子产品、电器、体育用品和服装引领。
 
  稳步的雇佣活动、工资温和增长和零售商打折促销使得消费者持续增加开支。除汽车和汽油外的消费者支出增幅创下去年4月份来新高。
 
  因此,这对“数据依赖型”的美联储来说意味着什么?我行认为,两者之间关系并不是特别大,仍继续认为6月是下次加息最有可能的时间。
 
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