汇市新闻

NAB:美元“下跌但未出局” 紧盯收益率波动性

日期:2017-01-25
  澳洲国民银行(NAB)周二(1月24日)撰文指出,进入2017年以来,美元头寸看似不再像2015年和2016年初那样处于极端状况。因此,年初以来美元指数下滑就不那么令人意外了。不过,当我们审视特朗普当选以来跨市场相关性强度以及其收紧程度时,美元的回调看似更不令人惊讶。
 
  特别是,尽管年初美元多头头寸可能并未接近创纪录的极端状态,但短期美国利率市场持仓却无疑如此。美国收益率自12月中旬以来一直在下移,而年底美元继续上涨。总的来说,债券收益率的波动导致外汇市场波动,一般来说,其很容易使美元贬值规模并证明是合理的。
 
  这几年,收益率波动仍将是美元汇率的关键因素,在这方面我们注意到其并不一定需要“特朗普经济学”来支持收益率升高和美元走强--正如美联储所暗示--美国经济已经接近满负荷,美联储的通胀目标几近达成。特朗普所做的任何事情可能只是增加上行风险而已。
 
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