汇市新闻

法兴银行:美元汇率今年将达峰值

日期:2017-01-20
  法国兴业银行(601166,股吧)全球汇率策略主管基特·朱克斯(Kit Juckes)19日在京接受媒体采访时表示,美元汇率将在今年达到峰值。
 
  他指出,目前来看美元汇率的确有点过高,但仍还有5%到10%的上涨空间。目前欧元区和日本的量化宽松措施(QE)还在继续,英国和欧元区政局还具有不确定性,全球对美元的需求仍比较大,这都对美元构成支撑。
 
  他表示,美元将在2017年达到峰值,当前还未达到。预计美元兑日元汇率将在今年第一季度达到峰值,大概在125至130附近。美元兑欧元汇率将在今年第二季度达到峰值,甚至不排除出现二者平价的可能性,但欧元兑美元汇率在1以下同样是几乎不可能的。欧元像一个“弹力球”,过去数年一直出现向下的走势,很大程度受到欧元区政局不稳定的因素,目前随着很多负面因素解除,预计欧元会恢复向上的走势,特别是随着欧央行减少QE规模,一些资金会回流到欧元区。
 
  他还强调,目前全球债券市场已经转向调整阶段,但牛市并未完全终结。这并不代表通缩趋势结束,而是暂停和修正。此外,现在很多可能影响金融市场的因素还停留在“假设”阶段,例如特朗普很多政策还只是停留在“说”的阶段,其究竟会怎样“做”还有待观察。
 
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