汇市新闻

瑞银财富:特朗普政策将令人失望 美元/日元恐跌至105

日期:2017-01-19
  瑞银财富管理(UBS Wealth)策略师Teck Leng Tan和Thomas Flury等周三(1月18日)撰写报告称,随着市场下调特朗普对美国经济增长和通胀效应的预期,美元/日元过于伸展的持仓状况可能导致其易于出现回调,未来12个月或跌至105水平。
 
  即将在本周五(1月20日)正式就职总统的特朗普(Donald Trump)此前承诺,将增加基础设施和国防开支,同时降低企业和个人所得税,这可能会促进经济增长和通货膨胀上行。
 
  美元/日元周三曾大涨近1.5%,因美联储主席耶伦(Jannet Yellen)的讲话暗示,联储准备未来一年快速加息。周二(1月17日)美元/日元曾触及七周低位112.57。
 
  瑞银策略师们指出,“市场对特朗普财政政策的预期过高,到最终兑现时可能会失望。”该行预期美元/日元三个月、六个月和12个月的目标汇率分别为112、110和105。
 
  另外,瑞银还补充道,日本央行当前的货币基础扩张速度是“不可持续的”,今年可能面临减码的风险。
 
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