汇市新闻

美国债收益率上升 美元兑欧元日元将保持强势

日期:2016-12-29
  富兰克林邓普顿投资在最新发布的报告中指出,随着美国利率走势向上,预料美元兑多只弱势货币,特别是欧元和日元会持续走势强劲。
 
  报告指出,10月份市场已开始预计欧元和日元走势向下,因为美国债收益率上升,而欧洲央行和日本央行的宽松货币政策均继续维持。该机构认为欧元区和日本均有条件继续放松银根,因为两地都需要以货币弱势来支撑其出口环节和推动经济增长,两地各自对货币弱势的倚赖远较美国强烈。两地亦需要提高通胀水平,而日本尤甚。目前欧元区和日本国债收益率微薄甚至达到负数,而美国国债收益率却正在上升,两者间差距日益扩大,这应有利于欧洲央行和日本央行的宗旨,推动央行更有效地针对美国加息机会提高来采取更果断的措施。
 
  此外,欧元亦因政治风险升温而面临更大压力。法德两国将于2017年举行大选,将会是评估欧盟和欧元区计划的政治意愿是强是弱的重要指标。整体而言,欧洲在未来一年里对持续放宽银根政策和货币弱势的需要更为迫切,而日本在这方面的需要则是较持续及长期。但从货币来看,预期未来一年内日元和欧元比将同样陷于弱势。
 
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