汇市新闻

道明证券:澳纽联储料按兵不动来评估今年降息的影响

日期:2016-12-27
  道明证券的分析师认为,澳洲联储和新西兰联储今年已经完成了加息,愿意按兵不动来评估今年降息的影响。
 
  澳洲联储表明,对新任主席洛威前景持乐观态度,这表明积极的贸易条件对经济增长的影响。但是澳洲联储还称,因劳动力市场动力依旧不明以及就业趋向走低,通胀目标会更具灵活性。这提供了一定的鸽派偏向,但我们预计澳洲联储仍接近中性立场。
 
  新西兰联储将利率降至1.75%后,暗示进一步降息不能保证有助于该联储实现接近2%的通胀目标。鉴于强劲增长和金融稳定性的风险,新西兰联储很难进一步调整。我们的利率预期仍取决于新西兰联储的态度,如果通胀压力上涨,他们有可能被迫开始加息,加息时间可能早于我们当前预计的2018年第3季度。
 
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